NY-13 – Harrison vs. McMahon – Could there be an upset?
Before the staff shake-up, the mood of Steve Harrison’s team was either gloomy or deluded, depending on which one you spoke to and when you spoke to them. Impossible as it seemed, there was no middle ground. Harrison had a puncher’s chance, and this was accepted as an indisputable fact. Yet, as I kicked back a few glasses of red wine with them at a Knights of Columbus in Bay Ridge for a meeting of the Brooklyn Democrats for Change, I got the sense that, happy or not, his people believed in him. Not as a Lothario figure destined for the halls of congress, but as someone who would fight the good fight against an incumbent whose re-election was all but assured at the hands of the district’s conservative voters.
Harrison’s then-opponent was New York City Councilman Dominic Recchia, a much less formidable foe than Michael McMahon (who would enter after the incumbent’s re-election bid become hopeless), but a difficult one never-the-less. When several illegal immigrants died in a house fire on 18th Avenue in Bensonhurst, it was Recchia (and not Harrison) who had helped make arrangements, and thereby gotten his name out.
But Recchia did not show up that night at the Knights of Columbus, and his absence was not unnoticed. To make matters even worse for Recchia, his wife was attacked on 65th Street in Brooklyn, and plans of his own potential withdrawal leaked the morning after Fossella was arrested.
When I saw Harrison speak, I too realized that he is a man of conviction and good character. Harrison never established a bond with his audience. It was as if he thought he could win by simply iterating and reiterating ideas as if they were lights we would all be drawn to. The people in attendance were unmoved by him, and here is why.
People do not study candidates views myopically and then vote as automatons, they want a narrative and a compelling one at that. They want you to show them what drives you and why what you say is important. They want to be excited about you, not about defeating the incumbent. Vito, for all his views, was such a figure.
I met Harrison briefly after his speech and like him. I thought ‘if this guy had money, he’d win.’ I still believe this.
*
Steve Harrison’s candidacy, for a brief period, seemed to take on new life after Vito Fossella’s demise. Yet, the Party was not interested in Harrison, and began to look into other candidates.
With disgraced Representative Vito Fossella now out of his re-election bid, the situation in NY-13 has become fairly newsworthy. Until recently it appeared that Steve Harrison was en route to the Democratic Party’s nomination for the congressional seat and another showdown with Vito, but now with Vito gone, it looks as if the Dems have put their full force behind Staten Island City Councilman Mike McMahon.
To give a sense of how significant the Democratic Party’s support is, consider this:
- They invited McMahon to D.C. where he, along with other Democratic congressional challengers, went through a campaign ‘boot camp’ complete with a meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
- McMahon has been endorsed by virtually every NY Democratic congressperson. Not to mention all the state senators, assemblymen and NYC councilmen.
- McMahon has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars in part because of the party’s imprimatur.
The McMahon/Harrison contest will be decided on September 9th when Democrats in NY-13 choose their nominee.
In the meantime, conventional wisdom suggests that the well-funded party pick has not only the financial and institutional advantage, but also the support of the rank and file average Democrat inside New York’s 13th Congressional District.
Yet, despite this, Harrison has several things going for him:
- He’s got good name recognition.
- He’s an outsider.
- McMahon entered the race very late and might be viewed as a johnny-come-lately.
- His views, though more liberal than the district’s, seem more compatible with the average Democrat.
One interesting, and perhaps telling statistic is the popularity of Harrison and McMahon’s websites.
According to Alexa, Steve Harrison’s website is ranked at 3,275,511, while Michael McMahon is ranked 11,792,208th
Of course, neither website would appear to get much traffic, but the difference is still very significant. Harrison’s rank suggests that he garners as much as a few hundred unique visitors each day, while McMahon’s rank suggest a few dozen (even that is a charitable estimate). This matters because it suggests that Harrison is getting a great deal more exposure than McMahon online, which in turn means that his message is getting out to a greater effect than McMahon’s.
I do not think that Harrison is going to defeat Michael McMahon in this race because the race is not about which man’s website gets more traffic, but I do not think Harrison is going to get trounced too badly either.
In short, I think Michael McMahon, barring the unforeseen (and when has that happened in this race) will likely win the seat in November, but I would not count Harrison out. He was running when it was deemed a no-win situation by the Party and lots of voters will remember this on election day.
–Update–
In the immediate aftermath of this post, McMahon’s website has slipped to 11,804,770, while Harrison’s has improved to 3,001,462. Meaningless, I know, but interesting given that McMahon’s momentum and stature ought to translate into at least better traffic than *this* blog is getting.
